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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Dunbar Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113003900 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 2,139 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

39113003900 is a census tract in the Dunbar Historic District area of Dayton, OH. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,139 residents. Food insecurity runs 49.6% against 17.8% nationally.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 30% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units944
Renter share51.1%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate37.0%
Median income$29,897

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Dunbar Historic District
Elevated
Within parent city
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#29 of 51 tracts In Dayton
Moderate
Within county
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#13 of 156 tracts In Montgomery County
Very High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#554 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7545, -84.2435 · click any tract to drill in

Why Dunbar Historic District scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
37.0% poverty · this tract
9.2
Supply constraint
$908 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5

How Dunbar Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Dunbar Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0039004.0Daytonparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 682Total filings over 17 yrs
  • 8.14%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.6%Peak (2018)
  • 52Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 39113003900
Filings climbed 53% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Dunbar Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Dunbar Historic District

SNAP participation runs 54.6% against 15.2% nationally. The dominant input is economic stress at 9.2/10.

The poverty rate is 37%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $29,897, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Against the Montgomery County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10.

Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 682 filings here across 17 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2018, when 10.6% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113003900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003900?

Census tract 39113003900 in the Dunbar Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39113003900?

Median gross rent is $908/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003900?

37.0% of residents in tract 39113003900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,139.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 85th, minority 97th, housing 51th.
Q5

Is tract 39113003900 considered part of Dunbar Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003900 fall within Dunbar Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003900?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 682 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.14% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39113003900 struggle to pay rent?

About 35.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 31.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39113003900 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113003900 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39113003900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 2% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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