Kossuth Colony Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 35%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The poverty rate is 37%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. SNAP participation is 33.0% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint is economic stress at 8.3/10.

Court records carry 1,399 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 22.1% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2014, when filings touched 37.7% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 8.6% in 2018, is well off that peak. Among the 13 mapped neighborhoods of Dayton, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

The closest comparables inside the same city are West Third Street Historic District and Dunbar Historic District. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. The 4 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.

With little internal variation, 5.4/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.