Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Central Eastside Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie
Tract 42049002600 · Erie County, PA · pop 4,190 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
42049002600 is a census tract in the Central Eastside area of Erie, PA. It scores 5/10 for landlords. 57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Erie County average of 42.3%.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,488
Renter share23.5%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$53,639
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
23
th percentile
Low
Within county
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Erie and the region
Centroid at 42.1161, -80.0529 · click any tract to drill in
Why Central Eastside scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,054 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0
How Central Eastside compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 75
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 45%Racial/ethnic minority
- 73%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 67%Grade B
- 33%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 154Total filings over 7 yrs
- 5.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.6%Peak (2005)
- 23Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 92% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Central Eastside. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Central Eastside
The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.2/10.
At $1,054 a month, rents run 21% over what the rest of Erie commands. Court records carry 154 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.
The worst year on record was 2005, when 7.6% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 24% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 7.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049002600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002600?
Census tract 42049002600 in the Central Eastside neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049002600?
Median gross rent is $1,054/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002600?
17.3% of residents in tract 42049002600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,190.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 82th, minority 45th, housing 73th.
Q5
Is tract 42049002600 considered part of Central Eastside?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002600 fall within Central Eastside (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 154 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.69% of renter households, peaking at 7.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049002600 compare to Erie overall?
Tract 42049002600 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049002600 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Erie
Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Midtown
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Eastside Eagles
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Burton
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Downtown Erie
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Eastlawn Hills
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Central Eastside
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
West Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Central City
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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