Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally
Elmwood Eviction Risk: Moderate , Providence
Tract 44007001500 · Providence County, RI · pop 3,095 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
For landlords sizing up the Elmwood neighborhood of Providence, census tract 44007001500 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.3/10. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 43% of renter households, a severe level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,158 a month while the average household earns $82,560 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 35% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,084
Renter share35.1%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate12.3%
Median income$82,560
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Providence and the region
Centroid at 41.7928, -71.4308 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmwood scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Providence
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
Rhode Island legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
12.3% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,158 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Providence
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Providence
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Providence
6.5
How Elmwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 76%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 20%Grade B
- 80%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 2 yrs
- 2.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.6%Peak (2015)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 77Total filings 2020-21
- 1.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.89×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Portland, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Elmwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.2%Housing insecurity
- 12.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 26.9%Food insecurity
- 21.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 15.1%No health insurance
- 17.4%Frequent mental distress
- 30.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmwood
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Providence eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Providence County average of 6.1 and above the Rhode Island statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
In CDC survey modeling, about 22.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 44007001500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 44007001500?
Census tract 44007001500 in the Elmwood neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 44007001500?
Median gross rent is $1,158/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 44007001500?
12.3% of residents in tract 44007001500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,095.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 44007001500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 54th, minority 82th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 44007001500 considered part of Elmwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 44007001500 fall within Elmwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 44007001500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 44007001500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.24% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 44007001500 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.89× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Portland, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 44007001500 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 44007001500 compare to Providence overall?
Tract 44007001500 scores 4.5/10, lower than the parent city of Providence at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Providence eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 44007001500 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Providence
Top eight tracts in Providence ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · RI
Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Elmwood
6.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Wanskuck
6.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Merino
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Manton
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Bridgham-Arch-Wilson Street Historic District
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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