Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Bell West Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise
Tract 04013040527 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,498 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 04013040527 covers part of the Bell West Ranch area of Surprise, AZ, and scores 3.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,498 residents. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,870
Renter share8.0%
SVI overall0.16
Poverty rate10.9%
Median income$81,509
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
79
th percentile
High
Within county
53
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Surprise and the region
Centroid at 33.6463, -112.4266 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bell West Ranch scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.9% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,952 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0
How Bell West Ranch compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 16
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 38%Racial/ethnic minority
- 54%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 7Total filings over 2 yrs
- 5.60%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.8%Peak (2005)
- 5Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bell West Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 3.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.4%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 11.8%Frequent mental distress
- 35.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bell West Ranch
The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10.
Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 41% of renters here are cost-burdened. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 7 eviction filings across 2 observed years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2005, when 2.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.6% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #59,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.4/10.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013040527
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013040527?
Census tract 04013040527 in the Bell West Ranch neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013040527?
Median gross rent is $1,952/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013040527?
10.9% of residents in tract 04013040527 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,498.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013040527?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 14th, minority 38th, housing 54th.
Q5
Is tract 04013040527 considered part of Bell West Ranch?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013040527 fall within Bell West Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013040527?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 04013040527 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.60% of renter households, peaking at 2.8% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013040527 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013040527 compare to Surprise overall?
Tract 04013040527 scores 3.4/10, right in line with the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Surprise
Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Shawnee Village
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arapaho Village
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Veramonte
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arizona Traditions
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sierra
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sierra
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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