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Neighborhood · Ranked #72,539 of 84,120 nationally

Bell West Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise

Tract 04013061026 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,249 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

The Moderate-tier score of $1/10 for census tract 04013061026 reflects conditions in the Bell West Ranch neighborhood of Surprise, Arizona. That is riskier than about 40% of US census tracts.

About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,246 a month while the average household earns $100,417 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. Renters make up 23% of occupied homes.

Risk score
2.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 10% Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units2,031
Renter share23.2%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate8.1%
Median income$100,417

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Bell West Ranch
Very Low
Within parent city
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#19 of 29 tracts In Surprise
Low
Within county
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#775 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,443 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.6316, -112.4181 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bell West Ranch scores 2.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.1% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$2,246 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0

How Bell West Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bell West Ranch risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.12.1This tracttract 061026Surprise: 2.42.4Surpriseparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 74Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 546.07%Avg annual filing rate
  • 116.3%Peak (2005)
  • 48Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130610262001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2002: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2003: 1 filings (58.54/100 renter HHs)2004: 25 filings (1,463.41/100 renter HHs)2005: 48 filings (116.25/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Bell West Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bell West Ranch

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 6.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Surprise eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061026

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061026?

Census tract 04013061026 in the Bell West Ranch neighborhood scores 2.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013061026?

Median gross rent is $2,246/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061026?

8.1% of residents in tract 04013061026 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,249.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061026?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 65th, minority 53th, housing 69th.
Q5

Is tract 04013061026 considered part of Bell West Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061026 fall within Bell West Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061026?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 74 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 04013061026 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 546.07% of renter households, peaking at 116.3% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013061026 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013061026 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013061026 scores 2.1/10, lower than the parent city of Surprise at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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