Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally

Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Lower , El Mirage

Tract 04013061040 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,764 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 04013061040 covers part of the Agua Fria area of El Mirage, AZ, and scores 3.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. 30% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.

Risk score

3.6

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 25% Owners 64%

Tract context

Occupied units1,453

Renter share35.7%

SVI overall0.50

Poverty rate6.4%

Median income$86,909

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across El Mirage and the region

Centroid at 33.6020, -112.3378 · click any tract to drill in

Why Agua Fria scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from El Mirage

5.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

6.4% poverty · this tract

1.6

Supply constraint

$1,724 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from El Mirage

5.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from El Mirage

6.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from El Mirage

6.0

How Agua Fria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

63%Socioeconomic
58%Household composition
72%Racial/ethnic minority
17%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

156Total filings over 4 yrs
4,885.32%Avg annual filing rate
8,144.9%Peak (2004)
50Filings in 2005 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2001 to 2005

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.1%Housing insecurity
7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
18.2%Food insecurity
12.2%SNAP enrollment
9.6%Transit barriers
15.0%No health insurance
16.6%Frequent mental distress
28.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.6/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

Severe burden reaches 10%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Court records carry 156 eviction filings across 4 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2004, when 8,144.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4,885.3% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 33rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 5.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,724, close to the El Mirage average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061040

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061040?

Census tract 04013061040 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013061040?

Median gross rent is $1,724/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061040?

6.4% of residents in tract 04013061040 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,764.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061040?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 58th, minority 72th, housing 17th.

Is tract 04013061040 considered part of Agua Fria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061040 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061040?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 156 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013061040 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4,885.32% of renter households, peaking at 8,144.9% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 04013061040 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013061040 compare to El Mirage overall?

Tract 04013061040 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of El Mirage at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage

Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org