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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Turtle Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Phoenix

Tract 04013619100 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,530 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

With a score of 5/10, tract 04013619100 in the Turtle Creek area of Phoenix, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs 64% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 61% Stable renters 35% Owners 4%
Tract context
Occupied units1,673
Renter share96.1%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate13.5%
Median income$44,509

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Turtle Creek
Moderate
Within parent city
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#86 of 379 tracts In Phoenix
High
Within county
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#152 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#165 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Phoenix and the region

Centroid at 33.6439, -112.0634 · click any tract to drill in

Why Turtle Creek scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.5% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$1,367 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0

How Turtle Creek compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Turtle Creek risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.05.0This tracttract 619100Phoenix: 3.63.6Phoenixparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 85

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,394Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 37.30%Avg annual filing rate
  • 49.5%Peak (2001)
  • 326Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040136191002001: 650 filings (49.50/100 renter HHs)2002: 572 filings (43.56/100 renter HHs)2003: 361 filings (27.49/100 renter HHs)2004: 485 filings (36.94/100 renter HHs)2005: 326 filings (29.03/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Turtle Creek

This is renter territory: 96% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $44,509, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2/10.

Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Court records carry 2,394 eviction filings across 5 observed years. At $1,367 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Phoenix commands.

The worst year on record was 2001, when 49.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 37.3% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013619100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013619100?

Census tract 04013619100 in the Turtle Creek neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013619100?

Median gross rent is $1,367/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013619100?

13.5% of residents in tract 04013619100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,530.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013619100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 50th, minority 69th, housing 96th.
Q5

Is tract 04013619100 considered part of Turtle Creek?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013619100 fall within Turtle Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013619100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,394 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013619100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 37.30% of renter households, peaking at 49.5% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013619100 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013619100 compare to Phoenix overall?

Tract 04013619100 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix

Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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