Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Vandenberg Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019003503 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,332 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Census tract 04019003503 covers part of the Vandenberg Village area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,332 residents. Severe burden reaches 30%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,611
Renter share51.0%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate30.4%
Median income$37,804
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
90
th percentile
High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1992, -110.8726 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vandenberg Village scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
30.4% poverty · this tract
7.6
Supply constraint
$971 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Vandenberg Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 65%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,771Total filings over 12 yrs
- 15.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.4%Peak (2006)
- 139Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 18% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Vandenberg Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.8%Housing insecurity
- 17.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.7%Food insecurity
- 30.4%SNAP enrollment
- 17.9%Transit barriers
- 20.4%No health insurance
- 21.9%Frequent mental distress
- 44.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vandenberg Village
Against Pima County at 43.8%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
The poverty rate is 30%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.1/10.
It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. Adults with no health insurance runs 20.4% against 11.3% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 22.8% against 14.2% nationally.
The filing record is not thin: 1,771 evictions over 12 years of observation. Average gross rent is $971, 15% below the Tucson average. The worst year on record was 2006, when 18.4% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 15.6% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003503
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003503?
Census tract 04019003503 in the Vandenberg Village neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003503?
Median gross rent is $971/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003503?
30.4% of residents in tract 04019003503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,332.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003503?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 89th, minority 82th, housing 65th.
Q5
Is tract 04019003503 considered part of Vandenberg Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003503 fall within Vandenberg Village (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003503?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,771 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003503 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.63% of renter households, peaking at 18.4% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019003503 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019003503 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003503 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Dunbar Spring
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Emery Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Twelve Hundred River Condominums
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Keeling
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Poet's Square
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004112
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
West University
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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