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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Vandenberg Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019004033 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,128 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

Census tract 04019004033 covers part of the Vandenberg Village area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,128. 39% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 20% Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units1,901
Renter share52.9%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate26.5%
Median income$33,638

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Vandenberg Village
Elevated
Within parent city
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#51 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Elevated
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.1883, -110.8494 · click any tract to drill in

Why Vandenberg Village scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.5% poverty · this tract
6.6
Supply constraint
$922 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Vandenberg Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Vandenberg Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 004033Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,218Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 19.97%Avg annual filing rate
  • 33.4%Peak (2007)
  • 106Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190040332004: 151 filings (15.89/100 renter HHs)2005: 238 filings (27.23/100 renter HHs)2006: 237 filings (27.12/100 renter HHs)2007: 292 filings (33.41/100 renter HHs)2008: 224 filings (25.63/100 renter HHs)2009: 186 filings (21.28/100 renter HHs)2010: 149 filings (16.32/100 renter HHs)2011: 185 filings (18.46/100 renter HHs)2012: 200 filings (19.96/100 renter HHs)2013: 153 filings (15.27/100 renter HHs)2016: 97 filings (9.13/100 renter HHs)2017: 106 filings (9.97/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 30% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Vandenberg Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Vandenberg Village

62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Pima County average of 43.8%. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $33,638, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.7/10. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.

At $922 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Tucson commands. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,218 filings here across 12 tracked years.

Food insecurity runs 26.0% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 23.0% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2007, when 33.4% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 20.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004033

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004033?

Census tract 04019004033 in the Vandenberg Village neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004033?

Median gross rent is $922/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004033?

26.5% of residents in tract 04019004033 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,128.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004033?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 73th, minority 66th, housing 94th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004033 considered part of Vandenberg Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004033 fall within Vandenberg Village (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004033?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,218 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004033 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.97% of renter households, peaking at 33.4% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004033 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004033 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004033 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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