Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Vandenberg Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019004034 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,349 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 04019004034 covers part of the Vandenberg Village area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,349 residents. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,264
Renter share50.2%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate26.7%
Median income$54,130
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
95
th percentile
Very High
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1812, -110.8489 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vandenberg Village scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.7% poverty · this tract
6.7
Supply constraint
$1,129 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Vandenberg Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 66%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 89%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,279Total filings over 12 yrs
- 19.21%Avg annual filing rate
- 23.1%Peak (2013)
- 137Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 67% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Vandenberg Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.7%Housing insecurity
- 11.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.6%Food insecurity
- 18.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.8%Transit barriers
- 15.2%No health insurance
- 20.3%Frequent mental distress
- 37.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vandenberg Village
Against Pima County at 43.8%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Court records carry 1,279 eviction filings across 12 observed years.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 23.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 19.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.2/10. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004034
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004034?
Census tract 04019004034 in the Vandenberg Village neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004034?
Median gross rent is $1,129/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004034?
26.7% of residents in tract 04019004034 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,349.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004034?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 71th, minority 63th, housing 89th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004034 considered part of Vandenberg Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004034 fall within Vandenberg Village (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004034?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,279 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004034 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.21% of renter households, peaking at 23.1% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004034 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004034 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004034 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019002201
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002202
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002400
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004407
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002503
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Vandenberg Village
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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