Within neighborhood
57
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Emery Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019003706 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,613 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
04019003706 is a census tract in the Emery Park area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,613. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.3/10.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units2,269
Renter share54.2%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate22.2%
Median income$47,095
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
87
th percentile
High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1597, -110.9523 · click any tract to drill in
Why Emery Park scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
22.2% poverty · this tract
5.6
Supply constraint
$871 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Emery Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 93%Socioeconomic
- 85%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,090Total filings over 12 yrs
- 20.21%Avg annual filing rate
- 29.8%Peak (2008)
- 163Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 19% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Emery Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.7%Housing insecurity
- 15.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.8%Food insecurity
- 26.2%SNAP enrollment
- 17.4%Transit barriers
- 30.1%No health insurance
- 19.4%Frequent mental distress
- 43.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Emery Park
Adults with no health insurance runs 30.1% against 11.3% nationally. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Severe burden reaches 21%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. At $871 a month, rents run 24% under what the rest of Tucson commands.
Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Housing insecurity runs 24.7% against 14.2% nationally.
Court records carry 2,090 eviction filings across 12 observed years. Filings peaked in 2008 at 29.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 20.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 9.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003706
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003706?
Census tract 04019003706 in the Emery Park neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003706?
Median gross rent is $871/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003706?
22.2% of residents in tract 04019003706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,613.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003706?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 85th, minority 93th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 04019003706 considered part of Emery Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003706 fall within Emery Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003706?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,090 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003706 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.21% of renter households, peaking at 29.8% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019003706 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019003706 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003706 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Samos
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miramonte
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004117
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
West University
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Rincon Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003901
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002801
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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