Within neighborhood
43
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Emery Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019003802 · Pima, AZ · pop 5,433 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
04019003802 is a census tract in the Emery Park area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 5.1/10 for landlords. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,637
Renter share40.3%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate19.1%
Median income$46,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1564, -110.9708 · click any tract to drill in
Why Emery Park scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
19.1% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$897 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Emery Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 94%Socioeconomic
- 93%Household composition
- 98%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 551Total filings over 12 yrs
- 6.33%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.3%Peak (2017)
- 58Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Emery Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.3%Housing insecurity
- 13.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 31.2%Food insecurity
- 21.9%SNAP enrollment
- 15.5%Transit barriers
- 29.3%No health insurance
- 17.6%Frequent mental distress
- 43.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Emery Park
Adults with no health insurance runs 29.3% against 11.3% nationally. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.5/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Average gross rent is $897, 22% below the Tucson average. It sits 1.2 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.
The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The filing record is not thin: 551 evictions over 12 years of observation. Housing insecurity runs 22.3% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2017 at 7.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.3% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #31,049 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003802?
Census tract 04019003802 in the Emery Park neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003802?
Median gross rent is $897/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003802?
19.1% of residents in tract 04019003802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,433.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 93th, minority 98th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 04019003802 considered part of Emery Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003802 fall within Emery Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 551 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.33% of renter households, peaking at 7.3% in 2017. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019003802 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019003802 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003802 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002504
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miracle Manor
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003505
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Keeling
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003506
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
El Cortez
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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