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Census Tract · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04019004058 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,680

Eviction risk in Tucson eviction risk centers on tract 04019004058, which scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 4,680 residents. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 38% of renter households, a high level, and 3% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,727 a month while the average household earns $63,524 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. Renters make up 14% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 9% Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units2,102
Renter share14.2%
SVI overall0.51
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$63,524

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#107 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Low
Within county
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#123 of 270 tracts In Pima
Moderate
Within state
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#658 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
National
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#39,389 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.1694, -110.8008 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tucson scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,727 rent vs county FMR
7.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Tucson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tucson risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 004058Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 51

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 193Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 6.36%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.3%Peak (2006)
  • 20Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190040582004: 12 filings (8.30/100 renter HHs)2005: 22 filings (9.60/100 renter HHs)2006: 26 filings (11.34/100 renter HHs)2007: 9 filings (3.93/100 renter HHs)2008: 14 filings (6.11/100 renter HHs)2009: 8 filings (3.49/100 renter HHs)2010: 11 filings (3.83/100 renter HHs)2011: 12 filings (3.73/100 renter HHs)2012: 21 filings (6.52/100 renter HHs)2013: 26 filings (8.07/100 renter HHs)2016: 12 filings (4.26/100 renter HHs)2017: 20 filings (7.09/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 67% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tucson

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 7.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 51st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004058

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004058?

Census tract 04019004058 in Tucson scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004058?

Median gross rent is $1,727/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004058?

8.9% of residents in tract 04019004058 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,680.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004058?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 51th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 37th, minority 64th, housing 44th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004058?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 193 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004058 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.36% of renter households, peaking at 11.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04019004058 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04019004058 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004058 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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