Palo Verde Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

66% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Pima County average of 43.8%. At $1,600 a month, rents run 40% over what the rest of Tucson commands.

Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $51,522, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

The voucher gap is 16.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.