Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Pecan Creek South Eviction Risk: Lower , San Tan Valley

Tract 04021000218 · Pinal, AZ · pop 7,059 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 04021000218 covers part of the Pecan Creek South area of San Tan Valley, AZ, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs 54% here against 37.6% across Pinal County.

Risk score

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 13% Owners 72%

Tract context

Occupied units2,166

Renter share27.9%

SVI overall0.44

Poverty rate7.6%

Median income$88,393

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Tan Valley and the region

Centroid at 33.2260, -111.5544 · click any tract to drill in

Why Pecan Creek South scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Tan Valley

4.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

7.6% poverty · this tract

1.9

Supply constraint

$2,028 rent vs county FMR

5.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Tan Valley

5.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Tan Valley

4.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Tan Valley

4.9

How Pecan Creek South compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 44

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

50%Socioeconomic
78%Household composition
63%Racial/ethnic minority
12%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.8%Housing insecurity
8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
15.7%Food insecurity
9.8%SNAP enrollment
8.3%Transit barriers
11.6%No health insurance
18.2%Frequent mental distress
27.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Pecan Creek South

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.9/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.4/10.

It sits 0.8 points below the Pinal County average of 3.8. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,028, close to the San Tan Valley average. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $88,393.

28% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04021000218

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000218?

Census tract 04021000218 in the Pecan Creek South neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04021000218?

Median gross rent is $2,028/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000218?

7.6% of residents in tract 04021000218 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,059.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000218?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 78th, minority 63th, housing 12th.

Is tract 04021000218 considered part of Pecan Creek South?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000218 fall within Pecan Creek South (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04021000218 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04021000218 compare to San Tan Valley overall?

Tract 04021000218 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of San Tan Valley at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Tan Valley

Top eight tracts in San Tan Valley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.