Census Tract · Ranked #14,308 of 84,120 nationally

Novato Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06041105002 · Marin, CA · pop 3,030 · 97% of tract blocks fall in Novato

Tract 06041105002 sits in Novato, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.7/10. Population here is 3,030. 44% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

6.7

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 26% Stable renters 8% Owners 66%

Tract context

Occupied units1,253

Renter share34.1%

SVI overall0.18

Poverty rate2.1%

Median income$132,269

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.0601, -122.5064 · click any tract to drill in

Why Novato scores 6.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Novato

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

2.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,423 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Novato

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Novato

7.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Novato

6.5

How Novato compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

8%Socioeconomic
33%Household composition
49%Racial/ethnic minority
34%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.7%Housing insecurity
3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
7.0%Food insecurity
5.8%SNAP enrollment
4.6%Transit barriers
3.8%No health insurance
13.5%Frequent mental distress
24.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Novato

77% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Marin County average of 51.0%. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. Well under the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 1.1/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. SNAP participation runs 5.8% against 15.2% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 6.7% against 14.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 83% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.6/10.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Marin County average of 7.3 closely.

Average gross rent is $2,423, close to the Novato average. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $132,269.

34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041105002

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041105002?

Census tract 06041105002 in Novato scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041105002?

Median gross rent is $2,423/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041105002?

2.1% of residents in tract 06041105002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,030.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041105002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 33th, minority 49th, housing 34th.

What share of households in tract 06041105002 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041105002 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041105002 scores 6.7/10, lower than the parent city of Novato at 7.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.