Census Tract · Ranked #44,543 of 84,120 nationally

Novato Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 06041105002 · Marin, CA · pop 3,030 · 97% of tract blocks fall in Novato

With a score of 5.5/10, tract 06041105002 in Novato ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,030 residents. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

77% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 44% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,423 monthly, set against $132,269 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

3.8

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 26% Stable renters 8% Owners 66%

Tract context

Occupied units1,253

Renter share34.1%

SVI overall0.18

Poverty rate2.1%

Median income$132,269

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.0601, -122.5064 · click any tract to drill in

Why Novato scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Novato

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

2.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,423 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Novato

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Novato

7.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Novato

6.5

How Novato compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

8%Socioeconomic
33%Household composition
49%Racial/ethnic minority
34%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.7%Housing insecurity
3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
7.0%Food insecurity
5.8%SNAP enrollment
4.6%Transit barriers
3.8%No health insurance
13.5%Frequent mental distress
24.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Novato

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Novato, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Marin County average of 5.4 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041105002

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041105002?

Census tract 06041105002 in Novato scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041105002?

Median gross rent is $2,423/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041105002?

2.1% of residents in tract 06041105002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,030.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041105002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 33th, minority 49th, housing 34th.

What share of households in tract 06041105002 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041105002 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041105002 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Novato at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.