Neighborhood · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally

Canyon Green Eviction Risk: High , Novato

Tract 06041102202 · Marin, CA · pop 5,393 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

06041102202 is a census tract in the Canyon Green area of Novato, CA. It scores 8/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,393 residents. Severe burden reaches 41%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 10% Owners 77%

Tract context

Occupied units1,998

Renter share22.9%

SVI overall0.35

Poverty rate9.4%

Median income$106,458

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.1166, -122.5913 · click any tract to drill in

Why Canyon Green scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Novato

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

9.4% poverty · this tract

2.4

Supply constraint

$2,934 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Novato

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Novato

7.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Novato

6.5

How Canyon Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 35

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

29%Socioeconomic
77%Household composition
43%Racial/ethnic minority
22%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Canyon Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.6%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
10.7%Food insecurity
9.6%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
6.6%No health insurance
15.0%Frequent mental distress
28.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Canyon Green

The clearest offset is court filing pressure at 1.1/10. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $106,458, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.3/10. Cost burden runs 58% here against 51.0% across Marin County.

At $2,934 a month, rents run 17% over what the rest of Novato commands. Food insecurity runs 10.7% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Marin County average of 7.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.

Nationally it ranks #7,836 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 23% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.2/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041102202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041102202?

Census tract 06041102202 in the Canyon Green neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041102202?

Median gross rent is $2,934/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041102202?

9.4% of residents in tract 06041102202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,393.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041102202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 77th, minority 43th, housing 22th.

Is tract 06041102202 considered part of Canyon Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041102202 fall within Canyon Green (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06041102202 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041102202 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041102202 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Novato at 7.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.