Census Tract · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000404 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 6,132 · 96% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

With a score of 7.3/10, tract 06099000404 in Modesto, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,132 residents. Severe burden reaches 44%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

7.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 14% Owners 68%

Tract context

Occupied units2,117

Renter share32.2%

SVI overall0.83

Poverty rate15.3%

Median income$68,002

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.7000, -120.9854 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

15.3% poverty · this tract

3.8

Supply constraint

$1,309 rent vs county FMR

3.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

65%Socioeconomic
89%Household composition
57%Racial/ethnic minority
86%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.8%Housing insecurity
10.0%Utility-shutoff threat
21.4%Food insecurity
22.6%SNAP enrollment
11.6%Transit barriers
10.9%No health insurance
18.9%Frequent mental distress
38.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. Cost burden runs 57% here against 47.5% across Stanislaus County. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

Average gross rent is $1,309, 23% below the Modesto average. It sits 0.8 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5.

On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7/10. SNAP participation runs 22.6% against 15.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.4/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $68,002.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000404

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000404?

Census tract 06099000404 in Modesto scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000404?

Median gross rent is $1,309/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000404?

15.3% of residents in tract 06099000404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,132.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 89th, minority 57th, housing 86th.

What share of households in tract 06099000404 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000404 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000404 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.