Census Tract · Ranked #11,988 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099001300 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 6,094

06099001300 is a census tract in Modesto, CA. It scores 7.2/10 for landlords. 45% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

7.2

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 10% Owners 69%

Tract context

Occupied units2,418

Renter share31.3%

SVI overall0.72

Poverty rate17.4%

Median income$82,156

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6602, -121.0036 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 7.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

17.4% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$1,536 rent vs county FMR

4.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

76%Socioeconomic
66%Household composition
57%Racial/ethnic minority
56%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.4%Housing insecurity
8.8%Utility-shutoff threat
17.2%Food insecurity
19.0%SNAP enrollment
10.0%Transit barriers
8.9%No health insurance
18.8%Frequent mental distress
36.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

67% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 7/10.

Against the Stanislaus County average of 6.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points. Average gross rent is $1,536, 9% below the Modesto average.

That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.5/10.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $82,156. 31% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099001300

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099001300?

Census tract 06099001300 in Modesto scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099001300?

Median gross rent is $1,536/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099001300?

17.4% of residents in tract 06099001300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,094.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099001300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 66th, minority 57th, housing 56th.

What share of households in tract 06099001300 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099001300 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099001300 scores 7.2/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.