Census Tract · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000503 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,586

With a score of 6.5/10, tract 06099000503 in Modesto, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Risk score

6.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 33% Owners 43%

Tract context

Occupied units1,794

Renter share56.4%

SVI overall0.60

Poverty rate10.8%

Median income$78,641

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6937, -121.0584 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 6.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

10.8% poverty · this tract

2.7

Supply constraint

$1,756 rent vs county FMR

6.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 60

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

65%Socioeconomic
34%Household composition
75%Racial/ethnic minority
53%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.5%Housing insecurity
8.9%Utility-shutoff threat
18.9%Food insecurity
18.0%SNAP enrollment
10.6%Transit barriers
10.8%No health insurance
19.2%Frequent mental distress
33.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. Severe burden reaches 14%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

42% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.7/10.

The voucher gap is 12.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.0 points cooler. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,756, close to the Modesto average. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $78,641. 56% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000503

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000503?

Census tract 06099000503 in Modesto scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000503?

Median gross rent is $1,756/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000503?

10.8% of residents in tract 06099000503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,586.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 34th, minority 75th, housing 53th.

What share of households in tract 06099000503 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000503 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000503 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.