Census Tract · Ranked #10,320 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000803 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,113

With a score of 7.5/10, tract 06099000803 in Modesto, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

7.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 22% Owners 46%

Tract context

Occupied units1,566

Renter share54.5%

SVI overall0.97

Poverty rate13.2%

Median income$51,190

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6763, -121.0391 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 7.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

13.2% poverty · this tract

3.3

Supply constraint

$1,441 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

81%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
78%Racial/ethnic minority
96%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

22.3%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
28.6%Food insecurity
28.1%SNAP enrollment
14.6%Transit barriers
17.3%No health insurance
20.3%Frequent mental distress
41.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $51,190 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. Food insecurity runs 28.6% against 17.8% nationally.

It sits 1.0 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. Average gross rent is $1,441, 15% below the Modesto average. Housing insecurity runs 22.3% against 14.2% nationally.

Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 7/10. On the national scale it lands near the 88th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000803

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000803?

Census tract 06099000803 in Modesto scores 7.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000803?

Median gross rent is $1,441/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000803?

13.2% of residents in tract 06099000803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,113.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000803?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 99th, minority 78th, housing 96th.

What share of households in tract 06099000803 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000803 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000803 scores 7.5/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.