Census Tract · Ranked #7,456 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000803 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,113

Modesto anchors census tract 06099000803, which lands at 6.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 78% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 59% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,441 monthly, set against $51,190 in average yearly household income, roughly 34% of income at the averages. About 54% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 22% Owners 46%

Tract context

Occupied units1,566

Renter share54.5%

SVI overall0.97

Poverty rate13.2%

Median income$51,190

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6763, -121.0391 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 6.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

13.2% poverty · this tract

3.3

Supply constraint

$1,441 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

81%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
78%Racial/ethnic minority
96%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

22.3%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
28.6%Food insecurity
28.1%SNAP enrollment
14.6%Transit barriers
17.3%No health insurance
20.3%Frequent mental distress
41.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000803

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000803?

Census tract 06099000803 in Modesto scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000803?

Median gross rent is $1,441/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000803?

13.2% of residents in tract 06099000803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,113.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000803?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 99th, minority 78th, housing 96th.

What share of households in tract 06099000803 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000803 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000803 scores 6.5/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.