Census Tract · Ranked #10,320 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099001100 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,728

Census tract 06099001100 covers part of Modesto, CA, and scores 7.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. 31% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

7.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 22% Owners 47%

Tract context

Occupied units1,597

Renter share53.7%

SVI overall0.93

Poverty rate15.3%

Median income$61,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6628, -120.9876 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 7.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

15.3% poverty · this tract

3.8

Supply constraint

$1,236 rent vs county FMR

2.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

84%Socioeconomic
92%Household composition
66%Racial/ethnic minority
93%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.7%Housing insecurity
9.9%Utility-shutoff threat
22.2%Food insecurity
23.0%SNAP enrollment
12.1%Transit barriers
12.6%No health insurance
20.3%Frequent mental distress
40.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. 58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%.

Average gross rent is $1,236, 27% below the Modesto average. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. It sits 1.0 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.9/10. SNAP participation runs 23.0% against 15.2% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 88% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $61,750. 54% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099001100

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099001100?

Census tract 06099001100 in Modesto scores 7.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099001100?

Median gross rent is $1,236/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099001100?

15.3% of residents in tract 06099001100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,728.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099001100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 92th, minority 66th, housing 93th.

What share of households in tract 06099001100 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099001100 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099001100 scores 7.5/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.