Census Tract · Ranked #16,571 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000909 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,618

Census tract 06099000909 covers part of Modesto, CA, and scores 6.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,618. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Risk score

6.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 19% Owners 58%

Tract context

Occupied units1,564

Renter share42.3%

SVI overall0.86

Poverty rate9.0%

Median income$80,868

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6733, -120.9843 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

9.0% poverty · this tract

2.2

Supply constraint

$1,566 rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

71%Socioeconomic
94%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
79%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.5%Housing insecurity
8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
17.8%Food insecurity
17.0%SNAP enrollment
10.0%Transit barriers
11.0%No health insurance
19.3%Frequent mental distress
36.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. 14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.2/10.

Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 54% of renters here are cost-burdened. Nationally it ranks #16,571 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 8.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely. Average gross rent is $1,566, close to the Modesto average. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $80,868.

42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000909

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000909?

Census tract 06099000909 in Modesto scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000909?

Median gross rent is $1,566/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000909?

9.0% of residents in tract 06099000909 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,618.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000909?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 94th, minority 69th, housing 79th.

What share of households in tract 06099000909 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000909 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000909 scores 6.3/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.