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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,562 of 84,120 nationally

Niagra Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Grand Junction

Tract 08077000602 · Mesa County, CO · pop 4,437 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

The Niagra Village neighborhood of Grand Junction anchors census tract 08077000602, which lands at 6.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 78th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 65% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,062 monthly, set against $34,839 in average yearly household income, roughly 37% of income at the averages. Renters make up 55% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 19% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units2,247
Renter share55.1%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate20.5%
Median income$34,839

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Niagra Village
Very High
Within parent city
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 19 tracts In Grand Junction
Very High
Within county
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 33 tracts In Mesa County
Very High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#122 of 1,447 tracts In Colorado
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Grand Junction and the region

Centroid at 39.0810, -108.5337 · click any tract to drill in

Why Niagra Village scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Grand Junction
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
Colorado legislature & governorship
4.7
Economic stress
20.5% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$1,062 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Grand Junction
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Grand Junction
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Grand Junction
6.2

How Niagra Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Niagra Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.45.4This tracttract 000602Grand Junction: 4.34.3Grand Junctionparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.23.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 149Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 7.17%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.6%Peak (2006)
  • 60Filings in 2008 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Niagra Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Niagra Village

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 7.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Grand Junction eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Mesa County average of 5.6 and above the Colorado statewide average of 5.7. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 149 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 7.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 8.6% of renter households in 2006.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 08077000602

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 08077000602?

Census tract 08077000602 in the Niagra Village neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 08077000602?

Median gross rent is $1,062/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 08077000602?

20.5% of residents in tract 08077000602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,437.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 08077000602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 53th, minority 35th, housing 82th.
Q5

Is tract 08077000602 considered part of Niagra Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 08077000602 fall within Niagra Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 08077000602?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 149 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 08077000602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.17% of renter households, peaking at 8.6% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 08077000602 compare to Grand Junction overall?

Tract 08077000602 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Grand Junction at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Grand Junction eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Grand Junction

Top eight tracts in Grand Junction ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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