Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Mill Creek North Eviction Risk: Lower , Jacksonville
Tract 12031015002 · Duval, FL · pop 4,828 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
12031015002 is a census tract in the Mill Creek North area of Jacksonville, FL. It scores 3.1/10 for landlords. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,455
Renter share22.5%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate10.1%
Median income$68,386
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
39
th percentile
Low
Within county
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region
Centroid at 30.3279, -81.5667 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mill Creek North scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
10.1% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,204 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
How Mill Creek North compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 99%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 35%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 715Total filings over 10 yrs
- 14.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.6%Peak (2007)
- 54Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 157% over the past 10 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 689Total filings 2020-21
- 9.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 5.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.73×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Mill Creek North. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mill Creek North
The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Against Duval County at 49.2%, 43% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $1,204 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Jacksonville commands.
The filing record is not thin: 715 evictions over 10 years of observation. It sits 0.6 points below the Duval County average of 3.7.
The worst year on record was 2007, when 18.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 14.1% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #65,414 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 7.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12031015002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031015002?
Census tract 12031015002 in the Mill Creek North neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12031015002?
Median gross rent is $1,204/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12031015002?
10.1% of residents in tract 12031015002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,828.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12031015002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 99th, minority 72th, housing 35th.
Q5
Is tract 12031015002 considered part of Mill Creek North?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031015002 fall within Mill Creek North (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031015002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 715 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031015002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.13% of renter households, peaking at 18.6% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12031015002 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.73× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12031015002 compare to Jacksonville overall?
Tract 12031015002 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Jacksonville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville
Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Azalea Terrace
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031011200
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riverside
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031011300
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Belle Rive
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
LaVilla
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031002701
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031015300
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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