Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Mill Creek North Eviction Risk: Moderate , Jacksonville
Tract 12031015001 · Duval, FL · pop 5,551 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
12031015001 is a census tract in the Mill Creek North area of Jacksonville, FL. It scores 4.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 5,551. The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units2,324
Renter share36.9%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate20.6%
Median income$58,759
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Jacksonville and the region
Centroid at 30.3450, -81.5651 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mill Creek North scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
20.6% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$1,213 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jacksonville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jacksonville
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jacksonville
3.0
How Mill Creek North compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 86%Socioeconomic
- 68%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 338Total filings over 10 yrs
- 6.51%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.0%Peak (2014)
- 37Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 388Total filings 2020-21
- 5.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.78×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Jacksonville, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Mill Creek North. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mill Creek North
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Average gross rent is $1,213, 17% below the Jacksonville average. Court records carry 338 eviction filings across 10 observed years. Against the Duval County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.
The worst year on record was 2014, when 6.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 6.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.8/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for roughly one in two of renters.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12031015001
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12031015001?
Census tract 12031015001 in the Mill Creek North neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12031015001?
Median gross rent is $1,213/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12031015001?
20.6% of residents in tract 12031015001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,551.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12031015001?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 68th, minority 71th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 12031015001 considered part of Mill Creek North?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12031015001 fall within Mill Creek North (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12031015001?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 338 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12031015001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.51% of renter households, peaking at 6.0% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12031015001 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.78× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Jacksonville eviction risk, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12031015001 compare to Jacksonville overall?
Tract 12031015001 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Jacksonville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jacksonville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Jacksonville
Top eight tracts in Jacksonville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Avondale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031011000
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Tallulah-North Shore
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riverside
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Azalea Terrace
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031011200
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
LaVilla
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12031002701
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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