Morningdale Eviction Risk: High , Worcester

Average gross rent is $713, 52% below the Worcester average. Housing insecurity runs 39.4% against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 58%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 30.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Against the Worcester County average of 5.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.2 points. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10.

The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The filing record is not thin: 139 evictions over 1 years of observation.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7/10. The worst year on record was 2015, when 12.5% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 12.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.