Within neighborhood
40
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,797 of 84,120 nationally
Port Ivory Eviction Risk: High , Elizabeth
Tract 34039031000 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,917 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 34039031000 covers part of the Port Ivory area of Elizabeth, NJ, and scores 9.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,917 residents. The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
9.1
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 40%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 32%
Tract context
Occupied units1,230
Renter share67.6%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate13.2%
Median income$61,532
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
53
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region
Centroid at 40.6552, -74.1980 · click any tract to drill in
Why Port Ivory scores 9.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.8
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
13.2% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,556 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elizabeth
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elizabeth
7.0
How Port Ivory compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 95%Racial/ethnic minority
- 52%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 47%Grade C
- 17%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 365Total filings over 4 yrs
- 10.46%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.9%Peak (2016)
- 87Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Port Ivory. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 27.6%Housing insecurity
- 13.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.6%Food insecurity
- 17.7%SNAP enrollment
- 14.6%Transit barriers
- 33.6%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 31.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Port Ivory
Cost burden runs 59% here against 44.6% across Union County. Against the Union County average of 6.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.9/10.
68% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Food insecurity runs 32.6% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 27.6% against 14.2% nationally.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.3/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Court records carry 365 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 12.9% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Union Co. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 10.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 95th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 34039031000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031000?
Census tract 34039031000 in the Port Ivory neighborhood scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34039031000?
Median gross rent is $1,556/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031000?
13.2% of residents in tract 34039031000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,917.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 88th, minority 95th, housing 52th.
Q5
Is tract 34039031000 considered part of Port Ivory?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34039031000 fall within Port Ivory (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34039031000?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 365 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 34039031000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.46% of renter households, peaking at 12.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 34039031000 struggle to pay rent?
About 27.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 34039031000 compare to Elizabeth overall?
Tract 34039031000 scores 9.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 34039031000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 17% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth
Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
34039039900
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031400
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031700
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Port Ivory
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
Gulfport
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34039031802
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
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