Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Bismarck Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 38015010200 · Burleigh County, ND · pop 4,383

Census tract 38015010200 covers part of Bismarck, ND, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,383. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score

4.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 28% Owners 53%

Tract context

Occupied units1,843

Renter share46.5%

SVI overall0.67

Poverty rate20.5%

Median income$54,107

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bismarck and the region

Centroid at 46.8107, -100.7645 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bismarck scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Bismarck

2.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

3.0

State political climate

North Dakota legislature & governorship

1.5

Economic stress

20.5% poverty · this tract

5.1

Supply constraint

$879 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Bismarck

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Bismarck

1.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Bismarck

1.5

How Bismarck compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

67%Socioeconomic
67%Household composition
31%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.4%Housing insecurity
7.3%Utility-shutoff threat
13.6%Food insecurity
9.7%SNAP enrollment
8.1%Transit barriers
8.7%No health insurance
15.1%Frequent mental distress
34.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bismarck

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

Cost burden runs 40% here against 34.1% across Burleigh County. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Burleigh County average of 3.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.

At $879 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Bismarck commands. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the ND average is 3.5, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $54,107. 47% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 38015010200

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38015010200?

Census tract 38015010200 in Bismarck scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 38015010200?

Median gross rent is $879/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 38015010200?

20.5% of residents in tract 38015010200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,383.

How socially vulnerable is tract 38015010200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 67th, minority 31th, housing 66th.

What share of households in tract 38015010200 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 38015010200 compare to Bismarck overall?

Tract 38015010200 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bismarck at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bismarck eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bismarck

Top eight tracts in Bismarck ranked by composite eviction-risk score.