Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Gateway Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bismarck
Tract 38015010300 ·
Burleigh County, ND · pop 5,726 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
38015010300 is a census tract in the Gateway area of Bismarck, ND. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,726 residents. Cost burden runs 54% here against 34.1% across Burleigh County.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%Stable renters 23%Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units2,689
Renter share49.3%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate15.7%
Median income$65,391
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100th percentile
#1 of 2 tracts In Gateway
Very High
Within parent city
80th percentile
#4 of 16 tracts In Bismarck
High
Within county
89th percentile
#3 of 19 tracts In Burleigh County
High
Within state
97th percentile
#9 of 228 tracts In North Dakota
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bismarck and the region
Centroid at 46.8236, -100.7641 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gateway scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bismarck
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.0
State political climate
North Dakota legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
15.7% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$993 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bismarck
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bismarck
1.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bismarck
1.5
How Gateway compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
9.5%Housing insecurity
6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
11.8%Food insecurity
8.2%SNAP enrollment
7.1%Transit barriers
7.4%No health insurance
14.4%Frequent mental distress
30.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gateway
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
It sits 1.0 points above the Burleigh County average of 3.6. SNAP participation runs 8.2% against 15.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.4/10. Statewide the ND average is 3.5, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $993, close to the Bismarck average. Annual rent works out to 18% of average household income of $65,391.
49% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 38015010300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38015010300?
Census tract 38015010300 in the Gateway neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 38015010300?
Median gross rent is $993/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 38015010300?
15.7% of residents in tract 38015010300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,726.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 38015010300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 56th, minority 31th, housing 83th.
Q5
Is tract 38015010300 considered part of Gateway?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 38015010300 fall within Gateway (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 38015010300 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 38015010300 compare to Bismarck overall?
Tract 38015010300 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bismarck at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bismarck eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bismarck
Top eight tracts in Bismarck ranked by composite eviction-risk score.