Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally

Dunbar Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113003800 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 2,070 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

The Dunbar Historic District area of Dayton anchors census tract 39113003800, which lands at 5.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 60th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

70% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $940 a month against an average household income of $38,799 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. About 44% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 13% Owners 56%

Tract context

Occupied units988

Renter share43.9%

SVI overall0.92

Poverty rate23.2%

Median income$38,799

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7647, -84.2448 · click any tract to drill in

Why Dunbar Historic District scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Dayton

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

23.2% poverty · this tract

5.8

Supply constraint

$940 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Dayton

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Dayton

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Dayton

3.5

How Dunbar Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 92

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

89%Socioeconomic
94%Household composition
98%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
60%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

983Total filings over 17 yrs
7.57%Avg annual filing rate
9.8%Peak (2007)
49Filings in 2018 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2002 to 2018

Filings climbed 29% over the past 17 months.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Dunbar Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

32.9%Housing insecurity
29.7%Utility-shutoff threat
44.5%Food insecurity
49.4%SNAP enrollment
22.9%Transit barriers
12.7%No health insurance
21.5%Frequent mental distress
46.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Dunbar Historic District

What moves this score most is economic stress at 5.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dayton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Montgomery County average of 5.4 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 32.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 29.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113003800

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003800?

Census tract 39113003800 in the Dunbar Historic District neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39113003800?

Median gross rent is $940/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003800?

23.2% of residents in tract 39113003800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,070.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 94th, minority 98th, housing 66th.

Is tract 39113003800 considered part of Dunbar Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003800 fall within Dunbar Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003800?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 983 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.57% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 39113003800 struggle to pay rent?

About 32.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 29.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39113003800 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113003800 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39113003800 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org