West Bayfront Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. Severe burden reaches 34%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

The poverty rate is 47%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Set annual rent against average income of $20,721 and the ratio lands at 43%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.6/10. It sits 1.5 points above the Erie County average of 4.3.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. Average gross rent is $737, 15% below the Erie average.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.9/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.