Neighborhood · Ranked #4,782 of 84,120 nationally

West Bayfront Eviction Risk: Elevated , Erie

Tract 42049000902 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,283 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

In the West Bayfront area of Erie, census tract 42049000902 scores 6.6/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 88th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

62% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 34% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $737 monthly, set against $20,721 in average yearly household income, roughly 43% of income at the averages. About 90% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 56% Stable renters 34% Owners 10%

Tract context

Occupied units827

Renter share89.7%

SVI overall0.77

Poverty rate47.3%

Median income$20,721

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1253, -80.0931 · click any tract to drill in

Why West Bayfront scores 7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Erie

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Pennsylvania legislature & governorship

3.4

Economic stress

47.3% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$737 rent vs county FMR

1.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Erie

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Erie

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Erie

5.0

How West Bayfront compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

93%Socioeconomic
34%Household composition
41%Racial/ethnic minority
71%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
42%Grade B
58%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within West Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in West Bayfront

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 77th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049000902

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000902?

Census tract 42049000902 in the West Bayfront neighborhood scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 42049000902?

Median gross rent is $737/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000902?

47.3% of residents in tract 42049000902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,283.

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000902?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 34th, minority 41th, housing 71th.

Is tract 42049000902 considered part of West Bayfront?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000902 fall within West Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

How does tract 42049000902 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049000902 scores 7/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 42049000902 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.