Chestnut Hill Eviction Risk: Elevated , Lancaster

Against the Lancaster County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.2 points. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.6/10. 13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.8/10. The filing record is not thin: 567 evictions over 7 years of observation. Average gross rent is $1,090, 12% below the Lancaster average.

The worst year on record was 2006, when 10.7% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lancaster. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 8.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 81% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 6.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $73,450, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. 41% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.