Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Virginia Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013101405 · Arlington County, VA · pop 1,867 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 51013101405 covers part of the Virginia Square area of Arlington, VA, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,867 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score

5.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 36% Owners 31%

Tract context

Occupied units1,290

Renter share68.7%

SVI overall0.25

Poverty rate4.0%

Median income$122,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8804, -77.1066 · click any tract to drill in

Why Virginia Square scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Arlington

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.2

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,386 rent vs county FMR

5.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Arlington

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Arlington

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Arlington

6.0

How Virginia Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 25

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

7%Socioeconomic
16%Household composition
53%Racial/ethnic minority
71%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Virginia Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

5.0%Housing insecurity
3.0%Utility-shutoff threat
4.8%Food insecurity
2.8%SNAP enrollment
3.7%Transit barriers
4.5%No health insurance
13.4%Frequent mental distress
17.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Virginia Square

Severe burden reaches 27%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

This is renter territory: 69% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Against Arlington County at 38.9%, 48% of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10.

SNAP participation runs 2.8% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.2/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101405

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101405?

Census tract 51013101405 in the Virginia Square neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51013101405?

Median gross rent is $2,386/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101405?

4.0% of residents in tract 51013101405 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,867.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101405?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 16th, minority 53th, housing 71th.

Is tract 51013101405 considered part of Virginia Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101405 fall within Virginia Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51013101405 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51013101405 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101405 scores 5.7/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.