Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally
Virginia Square Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013101407 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,621 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51013101407 is a census tract in the Virginia Square area of Arlington, VA. It scores 6.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,621 residents. Cost burden runs 21% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 69%
Owners 12%
Tract context
Occupied units2,506
Renter share87.1%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate15.3%
Median income$137,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8820, -77.1089 · click any tract to drill in
Why Virginia Square scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.3% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$2,525 rent vs county FMR
5.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Virginia Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 51%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Virginia Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.9%Housing insecurity
- 3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.8%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 4.9%No health insurance
- 14.7%Frequent mental distress
- 16.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Virginia Square
87% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8.5/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Disability prevalence runs 16.7% against 31.5% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.7% against 15.2% nationally. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7/10. At $2,525 a month, rents run 9% over what the rest of Arlington commands.
Nationally it ranks #15,451 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.4/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
It tracks the Arlington County average of 5.9 closely.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013101407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101407?
Census tract 51013101407 in the Virginia Square neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013101407?
Median gross rent is $2,525/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 21% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101407?
15.3% of residents in tract 51013101407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,621.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 1th, minority 49th, housing 51th.
Q5
Is tract 51013101407 considered part of Virginia Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101407 fall within Virginia Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51013101407 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51013101407 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013101407 scores 6.5/10, higher than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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