Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Virginia Square Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington
Tract 51013101406 · Arlington County, VA · pop 3,075 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51013101406 sits in the Virginia Square area of Arlington eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.1/10. 89% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 64%
Owners 11%
Tract context
Occupied units1,915
Renter share89.1%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate10.6%
Median income$143,711
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8838, -77.1046 · click any tract to drill in
Why Virginia Square scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.6% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$2,847 rent vs county FMR
7.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Virginia Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 2
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 3%Socioeconomic
- 0%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 36%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Virginia Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.2%Housing insecurity
- 3.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.9%Food insecurity
- 3.0%SNAP enrollment
- 4.0%Transit barriers
- 4.7%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 17.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Virginia Square
The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.5/10. Cost burden runs 28% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Disability prevalence runs 17.1% against 31.5% nationally.
The voucher gap is 23.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,847, 23% above the Arlington average. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.7/10. Housing insecurity runs 5.2% against 14.2% nationally.
That is riskier than roughly 79% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 1.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013101406
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101406?
Census tract 51013101406 in the Virginia Square neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013101406?
Median gross rent is $2,847/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101406?
10.6% of residents in tract 51013101406 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,075.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101406?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 0th, minority 48th, housing 36th.
Q5
Is tract 51013101406 considered part of Virginia Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101406 fall within Virginia Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51013101406 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51013101406 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013101406 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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