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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Brandon Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013101409 · Arlington County, VA · pop 2,183 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 5.6/10, tract 51013101409 in the Brandon Village area of Arlington, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Against Arlington County at 38.9%, 19% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 48% Owners 41%
Tract context
Occupied units1,423
Renter share59.0%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$138,438

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Brandon Village
Elevated
Within parent city
51 th percentile
Rank, 51st percentileLowHigh
#35 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Moderate
Within county
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#36 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Moderate
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#226 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8812, -77.1128 · click any tract to drill in

Why Brandon Village scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,396 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Brandon Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Brandon Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.65.6This tracttract 101409Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 41

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Brandon Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Brandon Village

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.4/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. SNAP participation runs 3.4% against 15.2% nationally. Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Arlington County average of 5.9 closely.

Average gross rent is $2,396, close to the Arlington average. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $138,438.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101409

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101409?

Census tract 51013101409 in the Brandon Village neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013101409?

Median gross rent is $2,396/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 19% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101409?

5.8% of residents in tract 51013101409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,183.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101409?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 48th, minority 57th, housing 82th.
Q5

Is tract 51013101409 considered part of Brandon Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101409 fall within Brandon Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51013101409 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51013101409 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101409 scores 5.6/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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