Neighborhood · Ranked #55,092 of 84,120 nationally

Franklin Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , McLean

Tract 51059470900 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 7,619 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 5.8/10, tract 51059470900 in the Franklin Forest neighborhood of McLean ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 7,619 residents. That is riskier than about 67% of US census tracts.

50% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,145 a month while the average household earns $230,539 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 21% of occupied homes.

Risk score

3.7

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 10% Owners 80%

Tract context

Occupied units2,901

Renter share20.5%

SVI overall0.24

Poverty rate2.9%

Median income$230,539

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across McLean and the region

Centroid at 38.9072, -77.1659 · click any tract to drill in

Why Franklin Forest scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from McLean

8.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

2.9% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$3,145 rent vs county FMR

8.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from McLean

5.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from McLean

3.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from McLean

4.1

How Franklin Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 24

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

3%Socioeconomic
65%Household composition
40%Racial/ethnic minority
45%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

7Total filings over 3 yrs
0.56%Avg annual filing rate
0.7%Peak (2011)
3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2011 to 2016

Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

4.7%Housing insecurity
3.0%Utility-shutoff threat
5.4%Food insecurity
3.4%SNAP enrollment
3.5%Transit barriers
4.4%No health insurance
10.4%Frequent mental distress
22.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Franklin Forest

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 8.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from McLean eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 eviction filings here over 3 tracked years, with about 0.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 0.7% of renter households in 2011.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 24th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059470900

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059470900?

Census tract 51059470900 in the Franklin Forest neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51059470900?

Median gross rent is $3,145/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059470900?

2.9% of residents in tract 51059470900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,619.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059470900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 65th, minority 40th, housing 45th.

Is tract 51059470900 considered part of Franklin Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059470900 fall within Franklin Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059470900?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059470900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.56% of renter households, peaking at 0.7% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51059470900 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51059470900 compare to McLean overall?

Tract 51059470900 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of McLean at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from McLean eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in McLean

Top eight tracts in McLean ranked by composite eviction-risk score.