Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Stratford Eviction Risk: Moderate , Leesburg
Tract 51107610603 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 3,738 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 5.5/10, tract 51107610603 in the Stratford area of Leesburg, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,738. Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,639
Renter share47.6%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate6.7%
Median income$89,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
88
th percentile
High
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Leesburg and the region
Centroid at 39.1037, -77.5612 · click any tract to drill in
Why Stratford scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Leesburg
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.7% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,876 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Leesburg
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Leesburg
6.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Leesburg
5.4
How Stratford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 75%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.5%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Stratford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 10.7%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 10.8%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 28.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Stratford
The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.7/10.
Against the Loudoun County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10.
The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 1 years of observation. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 3.1/10.
Average gross rent is $1,876, 11% below the Leesburg average. Filings peaked in 2016 at 1.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 8.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107610603
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107610603?
Census tract 51107610603 in the Stratford neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107610603?
Median gross rent is $1,876/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107610603?
6.7% of residents in tract 51107610603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,738.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107610603?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 74th, minority 71th, housing 75th.
Q5
Is tract 51107610603 considered part of Stratford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107610603 fall within Stratford (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107610603?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107610603 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.53% of renter households, peaking at 1.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107610603 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107610603 compare to Leesburg overall?
Tract 51107610603 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Leesburg at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leesburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Leesburg
Top eight tracts in Leesburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Stratford
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Village at Leesburg
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51107610601
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51107610504
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51107610400
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51107610503
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51107610602
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Kincaid Forest
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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