2 census tracts · pop 10,234 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.6/10
· range 5.5–5.7
Stratford is a 2-tract neighborhood of Leesburg, VA, population 10,234. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 5.6/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs 52% against 29.5% citywide, putting Stratford 22.5% over its own city.
The severe-burden share is 23%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 2.8/10.
The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Filings are well documented here: 135 across 2 observed tracts.
Average gross rent is $1,809, 14% below the Leesburg average of $2,105. The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 8.4% of renter households. Judgments average 1.4% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.
For a like-for-like read, Village at Leesburg and Kincaid Forest score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.7/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.2 points apart at the extremes.
Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $87,440. 50% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Stratford vs LeesburgHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority74%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport87%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Stratford
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
135Total filings (sum)
5.90%Avg annual filing rate
8.4%Peak year (2016)
5.90%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Stratford
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
16.3%Housing insecurity
9.9%Utility shutoff threat
19.8%Food insecurity
15.0%SNAP enrollment
16.5%No health insurance
30.5%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Stratford
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Stratford?
Stratford scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Stratford compare to Leesburg overall?
Stratford scores 1.3 points higher than Leesburg overall (4.3/10). Renters spend 52% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,809 vs $2,105.
Q3
What is the average rent in Stratford?
Average gross rent in Stratford is $1,809/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Stratford residents are renters?
50% of Stratford households are renter-occupied (vs 31% in Leesburg). The neighborhood has 10,234 residents.
Q5
Is Stratford a high social-vulnerability area?
Stratford sits in the 86th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Stratford have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Stratford is census tract 51107610505 (score 5.7/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.5 to 5.7, a spread of 0.2 points.
Q7
How safe is Stratford for landlords?
Stratford carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Leesburg as a whole (4.3/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Stratford?
Stratford has 10,138 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (43.9%), Hispanic / Latino (32.4%), Black (non-Hispanic) (11.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
