Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Ridges At Ashburn Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51107611014 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,572 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51107611014 covers part of the Ridges At Ashburn area of Ashburn, VA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,572 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.3/10.

Risk score

4.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 12% Owners 77%

Tract context

Occupied units1,657

Renter share23.1%

SVI overall0.11

Poverty rate5.2%

Median income$181,921

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashburn and the region

Centroid at 39.0526, -77.4794 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ridges At Ashburn scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Ashburn

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

5.2% poverty · this tract

1.3

Supply constraint

$1,998 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Ashburn

6.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.9

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Ashburn

6.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Ashburn

4.5

How Ridges At Ashburn compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 11

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

10%Socioeconomic
19%Household composition
58%Racial/ethnic minority
16%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

10Total filings over 1 yrs
2.53%Avg annual filing rate
2.5%Peak (2016)
10Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.3%Housing insecurity
4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
7.8%Food insecurity
5.1%SNAP enrollment
4.9%Transit barriers
6.3%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
21.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ridges At Ashburn

Cost burden runs 47% here against 37.5% across Loudoun County. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Average gross rent is $1,998, 19% below the Ashburn average.

SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 7.8% against 17.8% nationally.

Court records carry 10 eviction filings across 1 observed years. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.5% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.5% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 23% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611014

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611014?

Census tract 51107611014 in the Ridges At Ashburn neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51107611014?

Median gross rent is $1,998/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611014?

5.2% of residents in tract 51107611014 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,572.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611014?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 19th, minority 58th, housing 16th.

Is tract 51107611014 considered part of Ridges At Ashburn?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611014 fall within Ridges At Ashburn (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611014?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611014 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.53% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51107611014 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51107611014 compare to Ashburn overall?

Tract 51107611014 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn

Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org