Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Regency at Ashburn Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51107611017 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 3,566 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51107611017 covers part of the Regency at Ashburn area of Ashburn, VA, and scores 4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,566 residents. Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 63% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,486
Renter share33.0%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate2.3%
Median income$151,429
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
51
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ashburn and the region
Centroid at 39.0391, -77.4641 · click any tract to drill in
Why Regency at Ashburn scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,421 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5
How Regency at Ashburn compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 30%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 6Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.46%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.5%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Regency at Ashburn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.9%Housing insecurity
- 3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.2%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.2%Transit barriers
- 5.9%No health insurance
- 11.5%Frequent mental distress
- 26.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Regency at Ashburn
Severe burden reaches 37%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. At $1,421 a month, rents run 42% under what the rest of Ashburn commands. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 filings here across 1 tracked years.
Housing insecurity runs 5.9% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 42nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.9/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611017
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611017?
Census tract 51107611017 in the Regency at Ashburn neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611017?
Median gross rent is $1,421/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611017?
2.3% of residents in tract 51107611017 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,566.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611017?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 67th, minority 56th, housing 30th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611017 considered part of Regency at Ashburn?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611017 fall within Regency at Ashburn (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611017?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611017 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.46% of renter households, peaking at 1.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611017 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611017 compare to Ashburn overall?
Tract 51107611017 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn
Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Regency at Ashburn
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Ridges At Ashburn
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Regency
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Potomac Green
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ashbriar
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ashburn Mews
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Four Seasons at Ashburn Village
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Potomac Green
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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