Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Potomac Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Ashburn
Tract 51107611015 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 3,155 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
With a score of 4/10, tract 51107611015 in the Potomac Green area of Ashburn, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,155 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units1,362
Renter share44.9%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate1.4%
Median income$176,528
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
53
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ashburn and the region
Centroid at 39.0541, -77.4573 · click any tract to drill in
Why Potomac Green scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,471 rent vs county FMR
5.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5
How Potomac Green compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 30
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 16%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 60%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 49Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.51%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.5%Peak (2016)
- 49Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Potomac Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.3%Housing insecurity
- 3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.2%SNAP enrollment
- 4.4%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 12.2%Frequent mental distress
- 23.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Potomac Green
Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
SNAP participation runs 4.2% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10.
Court records carry 49 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10.
Housing insecurity runs 6.3% against 14.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 9.5% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 9.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 3.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $176,528, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611015
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611015?
Census tract 51107611015 in the Potomac Green neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611015?
Median gross rent is $2,471/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611015?
1.4% of residents in tract 51107611015 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,155.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611015?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 25th, minority 57th, housing 60th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611015 considered part of Potomac Green?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611015 fall within Potomac Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611015?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 49 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611015 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.51% of renter households, peaking at 9.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611015 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611015 compare to Ashburn overall?
Tract 51107611015 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn
Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Regency at Ashburn
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Ridges At Ashburn
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Regency
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ashburn Mews
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Four Seasons at Ashburn Village
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Potomac Green
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Regency at Ashburn
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ashbriar
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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