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Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Ashburn

Tract 51107611016 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,624 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

With a score of 4/10, tract 51107611016 in the Potomac Green area of Ashburn, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,624. Cost burden runs 11% here against 37.5% across Loudoun County.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 7% Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,876
Renter share7.6%
SVI overall0.08
Poverty rate0.5%
Median income$148,669

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Potomac Green
Very Low
Within parent city
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#4 of 9 tracts In Ashburn
Elevated
Within county
46 th percentile
Rank, 46th percentileLowHigh
#41 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Moderate
Within state
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#1,032 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashburn and the region

Centroid at 39.0470, -77.4637 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Green scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,750 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5

How Potomac Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Potomac Green risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.04.0This tracttract 611016Ashburn: 4.34.3Ashburnparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 8

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Green

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 18.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10.

Housing insecurity runs 4.5% against 14.2% nationally. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10. At $2,750 a month, rents run 12% over what the rest of Ashburn commands.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #48,956 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 1.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 0%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611016

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611016?

Census tract 51107611016 in the Potomac Green neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611016?

Median gross rent is $2,750/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 11% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611016?

0.5% of residents in tract 51107611016 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,624.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611016?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 51th, minority 52th, housing 8th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611016 considered part of Potomac Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611016 fall within Potomac Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51107611016 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51107611016 compare to Ashburn overall?

Tract 51107611016 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn

Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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