Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Ashburn Mews Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51107611005 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 5,162 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51107611005 is a census tract in the Ashburn Mews area of Ashburn, VA. It scores 4/10 for landlords. Population here is 5,162. Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 20% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,815
Renter share19.6%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate2.2%
Median income$152,813
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
13
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ashburn and the region
Centroid at 39.0406, -77.4955 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ashburn Mews scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ashburn
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,139 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashburn
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashburn
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashburn
4.5
How Ashburn Mews compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 3%Socioeconomic
- 17%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.78%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.8%Peak (2016)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.3%Housing insecurity
- 4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.4%Food insecurity
- 3.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.2%Transit barriers
- 5.1%No health insurance
- 13.1%Frequent mental distress
- 19.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ashburn Mews
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Disability prevalence runs 19.5% against 31.5% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.9% against 15.2% nationally. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3 filings here across 1 tracked years. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10.
At $2,139 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Ashburn commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 1.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611005
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611005?
Census tract 51107611005 in the Ashburn Mews neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611005?
Median gross rent is $2,139/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 20% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611005?
2.2% of residents in tract 51107611005 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,162.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611005?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 17th, minority 56th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611005 considered part of Ashburn Mews?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611005 fall within Ashburn Mews (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611005?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611005 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.78% of renter households, peaking at 1.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611005 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611005 compare to Ashburn overall?
Tract 51107611005 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Ashburn at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashburn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Ashburn
Top eight tracts in Ashburn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Regency at Ashburn
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Ridges At Ashburn
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
The Regency
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ashbriar
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Four Seasons at Ashburn Village
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Potomac Green
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Potomac Green
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Regency at Ashburn
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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