1 census tracts · pop 5,702 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.8/10
· range 4.8–4.8
Forestdale maps to a single census tract in Dale City, VA, population 5,702. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.8/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs around two-thirds against 32.6% citywide, putting Forestdale 31.6% over its own city.
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.7/10. On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 2/10.
Well under the midpoint is housing-court posture, at 2.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 40 evictions logged in this tract. 20.3% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.
The poverty rate is 17%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 9.6% of renter households. That places it #1 of 12 neighborhoods in Dale City.
Judgments average 5.3% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. At 21% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out.
For a like-for-like read, Evansdale and Brightwood Forest score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Forestdale vs Dale CityHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority88%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport29%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Forestdale
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
40Total filings (sum)
9.59%Avg annual filing rate
9.6%Peak year (2016)
9.59%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Forestdale
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
19.9%Housing insecurity
11.8%Utility shutoff threat
25.0%Food insecurity
19.4%SNAP enrollment
20.3%No health insurance
36.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Forestdale
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Forestdale?
Forestdale scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Forestdale compare to Dale City overall?
Forestdale scores 1.4 points higher than Dale City overall (3.4/10). Renters spend 64% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,818 vs $1,876.
Q3
What is the average rent in Forestdale?
Average gross rent in Forestdale is $1,818/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Forestdale residents are renters?
21% of Forestdale households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Dale City). The neighborhood has 5,702 residents.
Q5
Is Forestdale a high social-vulnerability area?
Forestdale sits in the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Forestdale for landlords?
Forestdale carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.8/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Dale City as a whole (3.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Forestdale?
Forestdale has 5,893 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (57.8%), White (non-Hispanic) (18%), Black (non-Hispanic) (11%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
