Evansdale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153900407 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,089 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
The Evansdale area of Dale City is where census tract 51153900407 sits, home to 7,089 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 5.3/10. That is riskier than roughly 48% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
52% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 6% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,629 a month against an average household income of $71,250 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6385, -77.3417 · click any tract to drill in
Why Evansdale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Evansdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 78%Socioeconomic
- 55%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 90Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.50%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.5%Peak (2016)
- 90Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.8%Food insecurity
- 14.8%SNAP enrollment
- 10.2%Transit barriers
- 14.0%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 30.9%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Evansdale
What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 3.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Black and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 69th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51153900407
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900407?
What is the average rent in tract 51153900407?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900407?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900407?
Is tract 51153900407 considered part of Evansdale?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900407?
What share of households in tract 51153900407 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153900407 compare to Dale City overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.