Mapledale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901227 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,079 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Here is how census tract 51153901227, in Mapledale in Dale City eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 4.6/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 6,079. That is riskier than about 24% of US census tracts.
23% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,095 monthly, set against $128,209 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 20% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6545, -77.3636 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mapledale scores 1.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Mapledale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.58%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.6%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.8%Food insecurity
- 12.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.9%Transit barriers
- 15.7%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.1%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Mapledale
The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 4.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 43rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 15.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51153901227
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901227?
What is the average rent in tract 51153901227?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901227?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901227?
Is tract 51153901227 considered part of Mapledale?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901227?
What share of households in tract 51153901227 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901227 compare to Dale City overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.