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Neighborhood · Ranked #76,223 of 84,120 nationally

Mapledale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901227 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,079 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Here is how census tract 51153901227, in Mapledale in Dale City eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 4.6/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 6,079. That is riskier than about 24% of US census tracts.

23% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,095 monthly, set against $128,209 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 20% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 15% Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,453
Renter share19.6%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate5.9%
Median income$128,209

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Mapledale
Moderate
Within parent city
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#9 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Low
Within county
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#41 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Elevated
Within state
29 th percentile
Rank, 29th percentileLowHigh
#1,544 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6545, -77.3636 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mapledale scores 1.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.9% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,095 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Mapledale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mapledale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.81.8This tracttract 901227Dale City: 3.73.7Dale Cityparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 43

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 11Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.58%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.6%Peak (2016)
  • 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mapledale

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 4.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dale City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 43rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901227

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901227?

Census tract 51153901227 in the Mapledale neighborhood scores 1.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901227?

Median gross rent is $2,095/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901227?

5.9% of residents in tract 51153901227 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,079.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901227?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 57th, minority 80th, housing 25th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901227 considered part of Mapledale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901227 fall within Mapledale (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901227?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901227 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.58% of renter households, peaking at 5.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901227 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901227 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901227 scores 1.8/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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