Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Ridgedale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901229 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,766 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153901229 is a census tract in the Ridgedale area of Dale City, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,766. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,331
Renter share14.7%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$125,642
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6499, -77.3839 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ridgedale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,122 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Ridgedale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 18
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 30%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 6Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.4%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.6%Food insecurity
- 10.0%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 10.4%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 28.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ridgedale
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points.
The filing record is not thin: 6 evictions over 1 years of observation. At $2,122 a month, rents run 13% over what the rest of Dale City commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 7.4% of renter households.
In a typical year about 7.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901229
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901229?
Census tract 51153901229 in the Ridgedale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901229?
Median gross rent is $2,122/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901229?
3.6% of residents in tract 51153901229 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,766.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901229?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 28th, minority 79th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901229 considered part of Ridgedale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901229 fall within Ridgedale (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901229?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901229 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.41% of renter households, peaking at 7.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901229 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901229 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153901229 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Evansdale
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
3.1
/ 10 · Low
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